By next year half of all humanity will have a mobile phone

The study predicts that the global mobile penetration rate will pass the 50 per cent mark next year, with a further 1.5 billion new mobile phone subsribers expected to join their ranks over the next four years. Portico Research says global mobile penetration rate will be at 75 per cent by 2011.

It is now believed that some 65 per cent of these "new-to-the-world" users will come from the Asia Pacific region, rather than from Africa as has previously been though most likely, with the majority being from rural regions in countries such as India and Pakistan.

Portico also says that although sector growth in the mature and supersaturated markets like Europe will remain limited, the US is a different case and that, in managed properly, the nation could experience five years of sustained high-value volume growth.

The report, "The Next Billion: Strategies for driving growth and making profits in low-ARPU mobile markets", adds the caveat that while the mobile penetration will rise most quickly and markedly in emerging markets, monthly Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)will be very limited in comparison with Europe and North America.

Portico cites a monthly ARPU for users in countries such as India and Bangladesh at about US$3 to $4 and points out that the average European and US subscriber thus pays the equivalent of the annual ARPU of an Indian mobile subscriber in a single month or even less.